Richard Bush said in the summer 2013 issue of the Ripon Forum that recent trends suggest world history is approaching a pivot period where a shift in the balance of power would destabilize existing international order.
Bush, the director of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, said history does not follow formulas, and past transitions of power were complex and contingent.
“This one will be no exception,” Bush said. “But if China and America are to find a mutually acceptable accommodation, it will require wisdom, skill and luck.”
He said China is entering a “revival” period, and has restored its lost power by entering into interdependence with the international system.
Bush said China’s large gross domestic product is a function of having a large population, and does not mean that the country will become a dominant political and military power at the expense of America.
“As Chinese society evolves after three decades of rapid change, its leaders face a series of policy challenges if they are to sustain economic growth, ensure social stability, and restore the tarnished legitimacy of the community party,” Bush said.
He said encouraging innovation and protecting its products are the keys for future U.S. growth, but Chinese entities lack the ability for technology innovation and have a consistent pattern of intellectual property theft.
“The Chinese central government has made commitments to protect the intellectual property rights of foreign firms, but have never been able to implement those commitments well,” Bush said.
Bush said China’s military modernization has been so gradual that it will be a long time before they are able to challenge the United States on a global basis. He said economic disagreements are able to create permanent rivalry between the two powers.
“Each leadership must shape negative domestic public opinion towards the other country so that it does not undermine bilateral ties,” Bush said. “And each must ensure that the commitments it makes to the other are carried out effectively.”